Railway wheel wear prediction is essential for reliability and optimal maintenance strategies of railway systems. Indeed, an accurate wear prediction can have both economic and safety implications. In this paper we propose a novel methodology, based on Archard's equation and a local contact model, to forecast the volume of material worn and the corresponding wheel remaining useful life (RUL). A universal kriging estimate of the wear coefficient is embedded in our method. Exploiting the dependence of wear coefficient measurements with similar contact pressure and sliding speed, we construct a continuous wear coefficient map that proves to be more informative than the ones currently available in the literature. Moreover, this approach leads to an uncertainty analysis on the wear coefficient. As a consequence, we are able to construct wear prediction intervals that provide reasonable guidelines in practice.

Predicting railway wheel wear under uncertainty of wear coefficient, using universal kriging

CREMONA, MARZIA ANGELA;LIU, BINBIN;HU, YANG;BRUNI, STEFANO;
2016

Abstract

Railway wheel wear prediction is essential for reliability and optimal maintenance strategies of railway systems. Indeed, an accurate wear prediction can have both economic and safety implications. In this paper we propose a novel methodology, based on Archard's equation and a local contact model, to forecast the volume of material worn and the corresponding wheel remaining useful life (RUL). A universal kriging estimate of the wear coefficient is embedded in our method. Exploiting the dependence of wear coefficient measurements with similar contact pressure and sliding speed, we construct a continuous wear coefficient map that proves to be more informative than the ones currently available in the literature. Moreover, this approach leads to an uncertainty analysis on the wear coefficient. As a consequence, we are able to construct wear prediction intervals that provide reasonable guidelines in practice.
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
Remaining useful life; Universal kriging; Wear coefficient; Wear prediction; Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering; Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality; Applied Mathematics
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
1-s2.0-S0951832016300588-main.pdf

Accesso riservato

Descrizione: paper
: Publisher’s version
Dimensione 3.48 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
3.48 MB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri   Richiedi una copia

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11311/997027
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 23
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 21
social impact