HERMES: Gamma-ray burst and gravitational wave counterpart hunter

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) bridge relativistic astrophysics and multimessenger astronomy. Space-based gamma- and X-ray wide-field detectors have proven essential for detecting and localizing the highly variable GRB prompt emission, which is also a counterpart of gravitational wave events. We studied the capability of detecting long and short GRBs with the High Energy Rapid Modular Ensemble of Satellites (HERMES) Pathfinder (HP) and SpIRIT, namely a swarm of six 3U CubeSats to be launched in early 2025, and a 6U CubeSat launched on December 1 2023. We also studied the capabilities of two advanced configurations of swarms of more than eight satellites with improved detector performances (HERMES Constellations). The HERMES detectors, sensitive down to similar to 2-3 keV, will be able to detect faint and soft GRBs, which comprise X-ray flashes and high-redshift bursts. By combining state-of-the-art long- and short-GRB population models with a description of the single module performance, we estimate that HP will detect similar to 195(-21)(+22) long GRBs (3.4(-0.8)(+0.3) at redshift z > 6) and similar to 19(-3)(+5) short GRBs per year. The larger HERMES Constellations under study can detect between similar to 1300 and similar to 3000 long GRBs per year and between similar to 160 and similar to 400 short GRBs per year, depending on the chosen configuration, with a rate of long GRBs above z > 6 of between 30 and 75 per year. Finally, we explored the capability of HERMES to detect short GRBs as electromagnetic counterparts of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers detected as gravitational signals by current and future ground-based interferometers. Under the assumption that the GRB jets are structured, we estimate that HP can provide up to similar to 1 (14) yr(-1) joint detections during the fifth LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing run (Einstein Telescope single triangle 10 km arm configuration). These numbers become similar to 4 (100) yr(-1), respectively, for the HERMES Constellation configuration.