Home Care (HC) providers are complex structures which include medical, paramedical and social services delivered to patients at their domicile. High randomness affects the service delivery, mainly in terms of unplanned changes in patients’ conditions, which make the amount of required visits highly uncertain. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model to represent the HC patient’s demand evolution over time and to predict the demand in future periods. Results from the application in a relevant real case validate the approach, since low prediction errors are found.

Bayesian analysis and prediction of patients’ demands for visits in Home Care

ARGIENTO, RAFFAELE;GUGLIELMI, ALESSANDRA;LANZARONE, ETTORE;NAWAJAH, INAD
2013

Abstract

Home Care (HC) providers are complex structures which include medical, paramedical and social services delivered to patients at their domicile. High randomness affects the service delivery, mainly in terms of unplanned changes in patients’ conditions, which make the amount of required visits highly uncertain. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model to represent the HC patient’s demand evolution over time and to predict the demand in future periods. Results from the application in a relevant real case validate the approach, since low prediction errors are found.
The Contribution of Young Researchers to Bayesian Statistics
9783319020846
Home Care; Bayesian Modeling and Estimation; MCMC algorithms; Random effects
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11311/748990
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