Nonlinear Mapping of Uncertainties in Celestial Mechanics

The problem of nonlinear uncertainty propagation represents a crucial issue in celestial mechanics. In this paper, a method for nonlinear propagation of uncertainty based on differential algebra is presented. Working in the differential algebra framework enables a general approach to nonlinear uncertainty propagation that can provide highly accurate estimate with low computational cost. The nonlinear mapping of the statistics is shown here, adopting the two-body problem as the working framework, including coordinate system transformations. The general feature of the proposed method is also demonstrated by presenting long-term integrations in complex dynamic systems, such as the n-body problem or the simplified general perturbation model.