Framing the dynamics of risk landscape amidst space economy trends

Major Space Economy (SE) trends are pushing the space industry into an era of radical transformations. New missions, infrastructures and in-space activities are envisaged under deep technological and business uncertainties, with strong implications on how space organizations identify, assess and treat risks at different levels. Space organizations should enhance their risk management models and practices to cope with an evolving risk landscape. There are two main shortcomings in the extant body of knowledge about risk management in the space domain: (1) there are no robust approaches to the modelling and analysis of risks in space projects under the SE paradigm; (2) there is still a limited understanding of how the major technological, business and regulatory trends, taking place in the SE, influence the risk profile of new space missions and services. The aim of this study is to address these gaps by investigating how SE characteristics and trends influence the risk exposure of space organizations. The research design consists of four phases. First, leveraging a systematic literature review, a taxonomy of the 5 key trends (e.g., New organizational and operational models) characterizing the SE, divided into 25 sub-trends (e.g., platformization), and a taxonomy of 36 risks (e.g., De-orbit risk) targeting different space missions and businesses are developed. Second, rich Bow-Tie models for each risk are set, linking risk events, causes, consequences, and types of impacts. Third, interviews with space experts were run to validate the taxonomies and the Bow-Tie models. Fourth, by reviewing the extant literature and collecting experts’ opinions, possible positive or negative impacts of SE trends on space missions and business risks were analyzed and summarized in a “SE Trends-Risks” matrix. Results include 40 mechanisms of influence between SE sub-trends and space mission risks, 82 % are negative (i.e., lead to risk increase), and 18 % are positive (i.e., mitigate risks). Additionally, SE sub-trends worsen the business risk exposure through 59 identified mechanisms (64 %) and contribute to mitigating it through 33 mechanisms (36 %). The results may support space organization managers in planning new space missions or in innovating their business models. Space infrastructure insurers can leverage the same results to develop appropriate risk analysis methods. Future research can take the proposed taxonomy and framework as a reference for assessing risks of new system architectures and space-based services, or for investigating the effects of new regulations and governance models on the risk landscape in the SE.