Quantification and mapping of regulating and provisioning services in urban areas making use of a system dynamics model

Oral Presentation Abstract: There is a growing evidence that the use of statistical, process-based, and mechanistic models can provide robust information for the quantification and mapping of provisioning and regulating services. These models can allow identification and relation of main factors of biophysical structures and processes, taking into account how the condition of ecosystems or living features (e.g. health conditions of trees) could increase or decrease the supply of ecosystem services (ES). However, they i) usually assume that conditions do not change over time; ii) rarely consider causal loop interactions among biophysical structures, processes and human actions; iii) do not model multiple ES at once. In this research, we present a system dynamics modelling approach to quantify and map several regulation and provisioning services and disservices simultaneously supplied by urban nature-based solutions, which acknowledges temporal changes in the system. To illustrate the approach, we develop and present the results of an urban forest model applied to Valdebebas Park (Madrid, Spain). Five regulating services (carbon sequestration, temperature regulation, air pollutant filtration, and water flow maintenance), one provisioning service (plant material for direct use or processing), and one provisioning disservice (plant residues for landfill or waste treatment) were quantified and mapped in biophysical units. The model includes morbidity dynamics of trees triggered by their location (street vs open spaces), lack of water, and waterlogging, as well as the influence of human management. The results show the potential of system dynamics models to quantify bundles of ES in a spatio-temporally explicit form and their usefulness to inform decision making in urban interventions. Key words: System Dynamics; Nature-based Solutions; Ecosystem Services; Ecosystem Disservices;