Exploring the water–food nexus reveals the interlinkages with urban human conflicts in Central America

Hydroclimatic extremes have been shown to enhance conflict in fragile societies. Quantitative research in this field has historically focused on rainfall anomalies, without accounting for their effects on the water–food system. Here we explore the water–food nexus and its interlinkages with urban conflicts in Central America. We use an agrohydrological model to assess the effects of drought on water availability and food production, accounting for regional food trade. A biophysical parameterization is then coupled with an econometric Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson model to detect dynamic spatial relations among social and hydrological variables. We find that drought-induced water deficit affects food security in major cities in the region and is correlated with the rise of conflict. Moreover, low population density and higher human development enhance the probability of permanent absence of conflict. Our analysis reveals the crucial role of food redistribution between rural and urban areas and its association with livelihoods and urban violence.