This paper presents a comprehensive approach to the probabilistic analysis of residential distribution grid injected by distributed PV sources. The approach is data-driven and is able to deal with the general scenario that includes the uncertainty of correlated PV sources and of statistically independent consumer loads. The novel method adopts a Gaussian-Mixture-Model for correctly representing PV sources correlation and a fresh probabilistic analysis technique employing Multi-Expansion polynomial chaos. Numerical experiments carried out on the Non-Synthetic European low voltage test system, highlight the importance of the comprehensive modeling strategy in order to realistically quantify uncertainty impact on the grid.

Statistical analysis of PV penetration impact on residential distribution grids

Harshavardhan Palahalli Mallikarjun;Maffezzoni P.;Gruosso G.
2022-01-01

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive approach to the probabilistic analysis of residential distribution grid injected by distributed PV sources. The approach is data-driven and is able to deal with the general scenario that includes the uncertainty of correlated PV sources and of statistically independent consumer loads. The novel method adopts a Gaussian-Mixture-Model for correctly representing PV sources correlation and a fresh probabilistic analysis technique employing Multi-Expansion polynomial chaos. Numerical experiments carried out on the Non-Synthetic European low voltage test system, highlight the importance of the comprehensive modeling strategy in order to realistically quantify uncertainty impact on the grid.
2022
Photovoltaic penetration
Polynomial chaos
Power grids
Probabilistic analysis
Simulations
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11311/1225231
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