Pricing reliability options under different electricity price regimes

Reliability Options are capacity remuneration mechanisms aimed at enhancing security of supply in electricity systems. They can be framed as call options on electricity sold by power producers to System Operators. This paper provides a comprehensive mathematical treatment of Reliability Options. Their value is first derived by means of closed-form pricing formulae, which are obtained under several assumptions about the dynamics of electricity prices and strike prices. Then, the value of the Reliability Option is simulated under a real-market calibration, using data of the Italian power market. We perform sensitivity analyses to highlight the role of the level and volatility of both power and strike price, of the mean reversion speeds and of the correlation coefficient on the Reliability Options' value. Finally, we calculate the parameter model risk to quantify the impact that a model misspecification has on the equilibrium value of the RO.