On the role of complexity in machining time estimation

Early cost estimation of machined parts is difficult as it requires detailed process information that is not usually available during product design. Parametric methods address this issue by estimating machining time from predictors related to design choices. One of them is complexity, defined as a function of dimensions and tolerances from an analogy with information theory. However, complexity has only a limited correlation with machining time unless restrictive assumptions are made on part types and machining processes. The objective of the paper is to improve the estimation of machining time by combining complexity with additional parameters. For this purpose, it is first shown that three factors that influence machining time (part size, area of machined features, work material) are not fully captured by complexity alone. Then an optimal set of predictors is selected by regression analysis of time estimates made on sample parts using an existing feature-based method. The proposed parametric model is shown to predict machining time with an average percentage error of 25% compared to the baseline method, over a wide range of part geometries and machining processes. Therefore, the model is accurate enough to support comparison of design alternatives as well as bidding and make-or-buy decisions.