Probability contour map of landing overrun based on aircraft braking distance computation

Runway excursions have formed the biggest share of runway-related accidents compare to all possible types of airport recorded events worldwide. Out of different possible event scenarios of excursions, runway overrun, which may occur in both landing and take-off phases of flight, is the most frequent one. Therefore many studies have been conducted focusing on determination of the contributing factors which have influence on the probability of runway overrun occurrence. This probability is directly related to the difference between aircraft Landing Distance Required (LDR) and real-time braking distance. In this regard, aircraft braking distance under certain circumstances should be computed. Runway surface condition as a result of previous studies is known to be one of the most contributing factors in runway overrun accidents. Existence of different water-film thicknesses on the pavement decreases the pavement skid resistance which leads to lower friction, for instance; consequently, longer aircraft braking distance is needed and greater risk for aircrafts to overrun is expected. Skid resistance strongly depends on the complex relationship between the aircraft operating conditions and pavement surface properties. Braking distances for a selected set of aircrafts were calculated and plotted in probability distribution format. Based on the probability distribution compared to LDR for the selected set of aircrafts, the landing overrun probability contour map and safety/risk probability distribution is presented.