Risk analysis and management for urban planning decisions: a decision aid perspective

Urban developments are complex processes characterized by the presence of several actors willing to act with the aim of optimal levels of both return and risk. The trade-o↵ between risk and profit represents a key factor in investment decisions, even more in the case of urban developments characterized by public-private partnerships and long-term horizons. Two different perspectives on risk management, a traditional engineering and a behavioural perspective. The behavioural perspective seems very promising to get more insight in the actual risk behaviour of developers, but an adequate framework is lacking. Considering these premises, the work will be focused on the relation be- tween profit and risk in urban development projects under the perspective of finding a balanced allocation of risks. For this purpose, we have proposed a multidimensional and multistakeholder approach for risk analysis and management. A questionnaire has been administered to a panel of expert in order to rate the risk perceived by actors involved in real estate development and how it changes according to the role they play in each stage of the process.