Machine-learning method for quality of transmission prediction of unestablished lightpaths

Predicting the quality of transmission (QoT) of a lightpath prior to its deployment is a step of capital importance for an optimized design of optical networks. Due to the continuous advances in optical transmission, the number of design parameters available to system engineers (e.g., modulation formats, baud rate, code rate, etc.) is growing dramatically, thus significantly increasing the alternative scenarios for lightpath deployment. As of today, existing (pre-deployment) estimation techniques for lightpath QoT belong to two categories: "exact" analytical models estimating physical-layer impairments, which provide accurate results but incur heavy computational requirements, and margined formulas, which are computationally faster but typically introduce high link margins that lead to underutilization of network resources. In this paper, we explore a third option, i.e., machine learning (ML), as ML techniques have already been successfully applied for optimization and performance prediction of complex systems where analytical models are hard to derive and/ or numerical procedures impose high computational burden. We investigate a ML classifier that predicts whether the bit error rate of unestablished lightpaths meets the required system threshold based on traffic volume, desired route, and modulation format. The classifier is trained and tested on synthetic data and its performance is assessed over different network topologies and for various combinations of classification features. Results in terms of classifier accuracy are promising and motivate further investigation over real field data.