Losing ground in mega-deltas: basin-scale response to existential threats to the Mekong Delta

The Mekong Delta is, in terms of the number of livelihoods it supports, its economic importance, and in its vulnerability to climate change and sinking lands, one of the world’s critically threatened mega-deltas. Livelihoods depend on the mere existence of the delta, but also on ecosystem services provided by the delta’s drainage basin spanning 795,000 km2 in six abutting countries. These ecosystem services include delivery of sand required to build delta land in the face of rising sea-levels and sediment bound nutrients, provision of spawning habitat for fish that are ultimately harvested in the delta, and hydrologic regulation driving the delta’s unique flood-pulse regime. However, while the delta is mainly located in Vietnam, the basin of the Mekong River is shared among China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, and Cambodia. In the context of the region’s dynamic growth, individual countries are pushing their own development agendas, which include extensive dam building, in-channel sand mining, construction of dykes and canals, and groundwater pumping, all of which contribute to subsidence and erosion of the Delta. Our synthesis of recent research indicates that most of the Mekong’s delta land will likely fall below sea-level by 2100 as result of these drivers, exacerbating the impacts of global climatic changes. In this context, local infrastructural projects and changes in land- and water-management may temporarily mitigate some negative effects, but do not address the existential threat to the delta as a whole. To prevent, or at least substantially postpone, the drowning of the Mekong Delta requires identification of the key drivers and immediate concerted management actions on the basin-scale to change the trajectory of subsidence and sediment deficit. A specific challenge is to find the institutional arrangements in this transnational context that could support the needed management changes and equitably distribute costs and impacts. The Mekong Delta is sufficiently well-studied that we can make projections with some confidence (albeit with significant uncertainty), but its problems are not unique. Rather the Mekong Delta is an example for the need to manage critically vulnerable mega deltas on multiple scales with a focus on strategic management decisions on whole basin scales.