Adaptive prognosis of lithium-ion batteries based on the combination of particle filters and radial basis function neural networks

Lithium-Ion rechargeable batteries are widespread power sources with applications to consumer electronics, electrical vehicles, unmanned aerial and spatial vehicles, etc. The failure to supply the required power levels may lead to severe safety and economical consequences. Thus, in view of the implementation of adequate maintenance strategies, the development of diagnostic and prognostic tools for monitoring the state of health of the batteries and predicting their remaining useful life is becoming a crucial task. Here, we propose a method for predicting the end of discharge of Li-Ion batteries, which stems from the combination of particle filters with radial basis function neural networks. The major innovation lies in the fact that the radial basis function model is adaptively trained on-line, i.e., its parameters are identified in real time by the particle filter as new observations of the battery terminal voltage become available. By doing so, the prognostic algorithm achieves the flexibility needed to provide sound end-of-discharge time predictions as the charge-discharge cycles progress, even in presence of anomalous behaviors due to failures or unforeseen operating conditions. The method is demonstrated with reference to actual Li-Ion battery discharge data contained in the prognostics data repository of the NASA Ames Research Center database.