In this paper an artificial neural network for photovoltaic plant energy forecasting is proposed and analyzed in terms of its sensitivity with respect to the input data sets. Furthermore, the accuracy of the method has been studied as a function of the training data sets and error definitions. The analysis is based on experimental activities carried out on a real photovoltaic power plant accompanied by clear sky model. In particular, this paper deals with the hourly energy prediction for all the daylight hours of the following day, based on 48 hours ahead weather forecast. This is very important due to the predictive features requested by smart grid application: renewable energy sources planning, in particular storage system sizing, and market of energy.

Analysis and validation of 24 hours ahead neural network forecasting of photovoltaic output power

LEVA, SONIA;DOLARA, ALBERTO;GRIMACCIA, FRANCESCO;MUSSETTA, MARCO;OGLIARI, EMANUELE GIOVANNI CARLO
2017-01-01

Abstract

In this paper an artificial neural network for photovoltaic plant energy forecasting is proposed and analyzed in terms of its sensitivity with respect to the input data sets. Furthermore, the accuracy of the method has been studied as a function of the training data sets and error definitions. The analysis is based on experimental activities carried out on a real photovoltaic power plant accompanied by clear sky model. In particular, this paper deals with the hourly energy prediction for all the daylight hours of the following day, based on 48 hours ahead weather forecast. This is very important due to the predictive features requested by smart grid application: renewable energy sources planning, in particular storage system sizing, and market of energy.
Artificial neural network; Energy forecasting; Photovoltaic system; Modeling and Simulation; Numerical Analysis; Applied Mathematics; Theoretical Computer Science; Computer Science (all)
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11311/981947
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