The potential of solar energy is far higher than any other renewable source, although several limits exist. In detail the fundamental factors that must be analyzed by investors and policy makers are the cost-effectiveness and the production of PV power plants, respectively, for the decision of investment schemes and energy policy strategies. Tools suitable to be used even by non-specialists, are therefore becoming increasingly important. Many research and development effort have been devoted to this goal in recent years. In this study, a simplified model for PV annual production estimation that can provide results with a level of accuracy comparable with the more sophisticated simulation tools from which it derives is fundamental data. The main advantage of the presented model is that it can be used by virtually anyone, without requiring a specific field expertise. The inherent limits of the model are related to its empirical base, but the methodology presented can be effectively reproduced in the future with a different spectrum of data in order to assess, for example, the effect of technological evolution on the overall performance of PV power generation or establishing performance benchmarks for a much larger variety kinds of PV plants and technologies.

A simplified model for the estimation of energy production of PV systems

ASTE, NICCOLO';DEL PERO, CLAUDIO;LEONFORTE, FABRIZIO;MANFREN, MASSIMILIANO
2013

Abstract

The potential of solar energy is far higher than any other renewable source, although several limits exist. In detail the fundamental factors that must be analyzed by investors and policy makers are the cost-effectiveness and the production of PV power plants, respectively, for the decision of investment schemes and energy policy strategies. Tools suitable to be used even by non-specialists, are therefore becoming increasingly important. Many research and development effort have been devoted to this goal in recent years. In this study, a simplified model for PV annual production estimation that can provide results with a level of accuracy comparable with the more sophisticated simulation tools from which it derives is fundamental data. The main advantage of the presented model is that it can be used by virtually anyone, without requiring a specific field expertise. The inherent limits of the model are related to its empirical base, but the methodology presented can be effectively reproduced in the future with a different spectrum of data in order to assess, for example, the effect of technological evolution on the overall performance of PV power generation or establishing performance benchmarks for a much larger variety kinds of PV plants and technologies.
PV production estimation, PV systems simulation, Statistical learning
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11311/758889
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