Energy production estimation of a photovoltaic system with temperature-dependent coefficients

This work addresses the problem of the estimation of the next-day electrical energy production of a photovoltaic system, using temperature and global radiation measurements. Based on the well-known single-diode, five-parameters PV cell model, the paper proposes a different representation of the temperature-dependent parameters, which are optimized based on experimental field data. Suitable sliding window and forgetting factor techniques are adopted, as well as a Taylor expansion of produced currents with respect to irradiance and temperature. The analysis shows that all these modeling enhancements can significantly improve the accuracy of the energy estimation process.