Recurrence Time Distributions: A Discussion

Some theoretical properties implied by "Predictable Modele" are enlighted and diecussed. In particular the aspects of interest in short-time prediction are shown. A few italian zones are analyzed. Results obtained in previous paper are prensented: the residual uncertainties are discussed here, especially about the "tail" values of dietributions. Because of the poor phyical knawledge the acceptabiity of a model is rather debatable. A comparison with maximum entropy densities estimation and with bayesian non parametric inference gives useful suggestions about the acceptability.