The paper proposes and discusses a methodology to quantify the economic potential of a plant subject to market variability. Price fluctuations and market uncertainty are analyzed and modeled. The manuscript assesses the variability of raw and product prices (i.e. hydrocarbons in the HDA process) related to a reference indicator (i.e. crude oil). Afterwards, it proposes a methodology to forecast a series of economic scenarios to quantify the feasibility of installing and running the HDA process (according to a dynamic interpretation of the economic potentials proposed by Douglas, 1988). Finally, the paper evaluates the statistical distribution of a dynamic economic potential to quantify the financial risk of investment on such a plant.
Dynamic Conceptual Design under Market Uncertainty and Price Volatility
MANCA, DAVIDE;
2011-01-01
Abstract
The paper proposes and discusses a methodology to quantify the economic potential of a plant subject to market variability. Price fluctuations and market uncertainty are analyzed and modeled. The manuscript assesses the variability of raw and product prices (i.e. hydrocarbons in the HDA process) related to a reference indicator (i.e. crude oil). Afterwards, it proposes a methodology to forecast a series of economic scenarios to quantify the feasibility of installing and running the HDA process (according to a dynamic interpretation of the economic potentials proposed by Douglas, 1988). Finally, the paper evaluates the statistical distribution of a dynamic economic potential to quantify the financial risk of investment on such a plant.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
