Existence and significance of communities in the World Trade Web

The World TradeWeb (WTW), which models the international transactions among countries, is a fundamental tool for studying the economics of trade flows, their evolution over time, and their implications for a number of phenomena, including the propagation of economic shocks among countries. In this respect, the possible existence of communities is a key point, because it would imply that countries are organized in groups of preferential partners. In this paper, we use four approaches to analyze communities in the WTW between 1962 and 2008, based, respectively, on modularity optimization, cluster analysis, stability functions, and persistence probabilities. Overall, the four methods agree in finding no evidence of significant partitions. A few weak communities emerge from the analysis, but they do not represent secluded groups of countries, as intercommunity linkages are also strong, supporting the view of a truly globalized trading system.