Credibility indicator for probabilistic bridge service life prediction

In this paper the effect of the epistemic uncertainty associated with deterioration modeling on the bridge service life prediction by using a credibility indicator. For this purpose a credibility indicator is used. This indicator is able to compare two models and decide which one is the most reliable. The procedure is applied to the service life prediction of an existing bridge. The results prove that the credibility index is able to recognize, in qualitative and quantitative terms, the most reliable modeling