Homogenized limit analysis of masonry structures with random input properties: polynomial response surface approximation and Monte Carlo simulations

The uncertainty often observed in experimental strengths of masonry constituents makes critical the selection of the appropriate inputs in finite element analysis of complex masonry buildings, as well as requires modelling the building ultimate load as a random variable. On the other hand, the utilization of expensive Monte Carlo simulations to estimate collapse load probability distributions may become computationally impractical when a single analysis of a complex building requires hours of computer calculations. To reduce the computational cost of Monte Carlo simulations, direct computer calculations can be replaced with inexpensive Response Surface (RS) models. This work investigates the use of RS models in Monte Carlo analysis of complex masonry buildings with random input parameters. The accuracy of the estimated RS models, as well as the good estimations of the collapse load cumulative distributions obtained via polynomial RS models, show how the proposed approach could be a useful tool in problems of technical interest.