Probabilistic model for the assessment of historic buildings under permanent loading

The results of creep and pseudocreep tests, carried out on the masonry of an ancient structure, are presented and their interpretation by means of a probabilistic model is proposed, based on the definition of a random variable as a significant index of vulnerability, and on the solution of the classic problem of reliability in stochastic conditions. A comparison between vertical and horizontal strain rate is put forward and the application of the proposed procedure to the Tower of Monza is attempted. Aim of the research is to provide a mathematical model able to predict possible failures of heavy masonry structures due to long term damage, allowing preventive repair.