Impact of log-transmissivity variogram structure on groundwater flow and transport predictions

We analyze the impact of the choice of the variogram model adopted to characterize the spatial variability of natural log-transmissivity on the evaluation of leading (statistical) moments of hydraulic heads and contaminant travel times and trajectories within mildly (randomly) heterogeneous two-dimensional porous systems. The study is motivated by the fact that in several practical situations the differences between various variogram types and a typical noisy sample variogram are small enough to suggest that one would often have a hard time deciding which of the tested models provides the best fit. Like-wise, choosing amongst a set of seemingly likely variogram models estimated by means of geostatistical inverse models of flow equations can be difficult due to lack of sensi-tivity of available model discrimination criteria. We tackle the problem within the framework of numerical Monte Carlo simulations for mean uniform and radial flow scenarios. The effect of three commonly used isotropic variogram models, i.e., Gaus-sian, Exponential and Spherical, is analyzed. Our analysis clearly shows that (ensemble) mean values of the quantities of interest are not considerably influenced by the variogram shape for the range of parameters examined. Contrariwise, prediction vari-ances of the quantities examined are significantly affected by the choice of the variogram model of the log-transmissivity field. The spatial distribution of the larg-est/lowest values of the relative differences observed amongst the tested models de-pends on a combination of variogram shape and parameters and relative distance from internal sources and the outer domain boundary. Our findings suggest the need of de-veloping robust techniques to discriminate amongst a set of seemingly equally likely al-ternative variogram models in order to provide reliable uncertainty estimates of state variables.