Measuring Economical Risk in Life Cycle Management

Nell'articolo si analizza il processo di gestione del ciclo di vita di un edificio con tecniche di risk management e si evidenziano due momenti critici in cui i rischi devono necessariamente essere controllati. Successivamente si propongono due modi differenti per misurare e controllare i rischi attraverso l'uso di strumenti statistici. Life cycle base management of building and building assets is strictly bound to economical management in many cases: a company that owns its facilities and need to reduce maintenance costs or to get better building performance for the money spent; a private company that is involved in a PPP, PF Initiative, etc. This strong relationship brings the need for tools to measure and minimize economical risk in life cycle base management of building. A Life cycle management process can be divided in sub-processes (inventory registration, condition survey, service life performance analysis, maintenance analysis, maintenance optimization, maintenance planning). Some of these sub-processes are more relevant than other for economical risk and this paper shows first results of a research, conducted at the Polytechnic of Milan, aimed to identify and deal with risk related activities in building maintenance planning. Two points of the life cycle management process are analyzed with deep details: the identification of maintenance activities to be done on a building and the estimation of costs related with these activities. For the first point the paper shows an evolved approach to FMECA based on risk management techniques to measure the probability of not including a maintenance operation that will be necessary. For the second point the paper shows a methodology developed at the BEST – Polytechnic of Milan to estimate maintenance costs within a probabilistic approach.