The vulnerability of ancient buildings under permanent loading: a probabilistic approach

The results of creep and pseudo-creep tests, carried out on the masonry of an ancient structure are presented and their interpretation by means of a probabilistic model is proposed, based on the definition of a random variable as a significant index of vulnerability, and on the solution of the classic problem of reliability in stochastic conditions. The aim of the research is to provide a mathematical model able to prevent failures of heavy masonry structures, due to long term damage caused by the dead load and/or by cyclic actions; this behaviour was detected after some disastrous failures ( Pavia Civic Tower, Goch Bell Tower, Noto Cathedral, etc.) took place in the recent past.