Simulation model for forecast of the energy performance of PV plants

The photovoltaic technology offers optimal perspectives for the generation of renewable electric power with low environmental impacts. At the moment, the still elevated level of the costs constitutes an obstacle for a widespread diffusion of this kind of technology. The development perspectives, however, let preview for the next years the lowering of the prices necessary to the attainment of the economic competitiveness. The public boosting policies undertaken from several governments, among which also the Italian one as well, represent the starting point of the previewed development. Therefore it’s necessary to elaborate adequate strategies to arrange reliable analyses and forecast instruments. The success of PV systems depends, in fact, on an accurate energetic and economic planning; however this operation it is often difficult because of the variability of many factors, for example the climatic conditions in which the systems operate and the connected variability of the PV systems performance. This work introduced a calculation methodology for the PV systems productivity, verified on two case-studies, useful to elaborate sufficiently reliable evaluation of electrical production.