Logistics developments, construction charges, and impacts on local public finances: insights from Lombardy’s regional policies

n recent decades, the logistics sector has experienced significant growth at both the global and national levels, driven by transformations in production and consumption patterns. In the Lombardy Region, the spread of large logistics facilities has led to substantial land consumption, with significant impacts on ecosystem services, the landscape, and mobility. In response, the region has embarked on a process of regulatory review, introducing tools to govern the location of interventions (Regional Law 15/2024) and introducing increases in monetary contributions to be paid by the implementing entities (Regional Law 18/2019). This paper proposes an estimate, based on Monte Carlo simulations, of the development charges associated with logistics projects and their impact on municipal budgets. The analysis considers uncertainty, the range of possible project sizes, and the regulatory framework observed in a sample of 100 municipalities. The results indicate that this sector generates significant revenue, further increased following the entry into force of Regional Law 18/2019. Although, for the same surface area, there are no significant variations in the overall amount of the development charges, the financial impact varies depending on the size of the municipal budgets, with a proportionally greater impact on less populous municipalities. We argue that the territorial extent of these transformations and their financial impact on municipal budgets, together with the high degree of discretionary power of municipalities, may encourage suboptimal planning choices and have contributed to the sprawl of logistics facilities. Therefore, our findings corroborate the need for the adoption of a supra-local governance model for the sector aimed at reducing negative externalities and guiding interventions through integrated evaluation processes.