Modelling the value of space project ecologies through systems architecting

In the Space Economy, complex space projects are increasingly expected to generate long-term value that extends beyond traditional space stakeholders, reaching new terrestrial domains such as insurance, energy, transportation, and healthcare. While the space sector has decades of Systems Engineering experience in defining and validating project performance, existing methodologies remain insufficient for modeling and designing the value of complex space projects. We argue that this gap stems from a system-architectural failure: projects are conceived as closed systems rather than as nested systems within the broader project ecology (systems of systems). Our work addresses this shortcoming by 1) framing complex space projects as nested systems and 2) applying systems architecting to model the value created by space projects in their ecology. The empirical setting of the study is Copernicus, the European flagship Earth Observation programme. The research proceeds through three main stages. 1) Ecology Modeling - Based on secondary data, we mapped and modeled the Copernicus ecology architecture (entities and functions). 2) Value Perception Analysis - We conducted an assessment of value perception among the entities in Copernicus ecology, examining how different entities define and pursue value functions, and how end-users interpret and derive value from Copernicus outputs. Data were gathered through interviews with engineers and managers in the ecology, to perceived value misalignments and architectural bottlenecks. 3) Value Network Modeling - We developed a value network model, quantifying the flows of value among Copernicus ecology entities. The resulting value network model reveals how and why Copernicus's value lies in its ecology. Findings indicate that Copernicus, as currently architected, does not fully satisfy the expected value functions of its intended end users, with value often being propagated to unintended or weakly connected domains. This misalignment reflects a lack of architectural coherence and systemic feedback mechanisms, underscoring the need for new frameworks for architectural design governance that integrate ecological considerations into project design. Our research advances the systems architecture and project management literature by demonstrating the relevance of broadening the level of analysis to the ecology (systems of systems) for designing next-generation projects.