More than three-quarters of environmental migration in Somalia is driven by water deficiency for food and livestock production

Global hydroclimatic extremes are drivers of human displacement in Africa, particularly within farming, pastoralist and agropastoralist communities. Somalia experienced five consecutive failed rainy seasons in recent years and is strongly impacted by drought and food insecurity. Here we develop a holistic analysis of geospatial data, demographic surveys, hydrological modelling and multivariate spatial analysis to examine the multi-faceted challenges posed by agricultural water scarcity, food insecurity and drought on environmental migration trends in Somalia. We fill reporting gaps arising from limited humanitarian access and data collection, documenting departure location and reasons underlying individual decisions to move from over 40,000 cases. We find that, between 2015 and 2021, 76–91% of environmental migrants departed from statistically significant multivariate hot spots of drought, food insecurity and agricultural water scarcity, highlighting the urgent need for integrated strategies that address water availability for food security and proactive interventions and policies in areas most susceptible to compounded hydroclimatic variability impacts.