Beyond the wrecking ball: An empirical assessment of Milan’s densification in contrast with the common narrative

This paper provides an empirical, data-driven assessment of Milan’s urban transformation, challenging the prevailing rhetorical narrative that frames the “Milanese model” as an uncontrolled and wild process. The study addresses three core contentions: whether the transformation is large-scale or “molecular”, if it generates quantifiable public benefits, and if it is the primary cause of gentrification. Using a geospatial analysis of building data, land use changes, and real estate values from 2012 to 2024, the research reveals key findings that contradict common perceptions. The densification process is a widespread, “molecular” renewal rather than aggressive, with a minimal increase in built-up volume (0.37%) despite over one million m2 of demolitions. The study also provides tangible evidence of public benefits, showing that for every cubic meter of new volume, the city has gained approximately 4 m2 of permeable green space and 0.16 m2 of protected bike paths. Most notably, the research refutes the idea that verticalization and reconstruction are the main drivers of gentrification. Statistical analysis shows a near-zero correlation (R² = 0.05) between demolitions and property prices. The paper concludes that the gentrification that occurs is not only a result of private building activity, but rather a paradoxical consequence of public improvements – such as new parks and bike paths – that are strategically tied to development.