Future trajectories for EPBD-aligned incentives: evidence from Italy’s Superbonus programme

Buildings account for around 40% of final energy demand in Europe, and the last Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) calls for cost-optimal, performance-based renovation pathways toward a zero-emission building stock. In Italy, the Superbonus 110% has triggered an unprecedented renovation wave, but recent studies mostly address macroeconomic impacts, construction cost inflation and implementation barriers, rather than building-level cost-effectiveness and actual performance improvements. This paper analyses a sample of buildings within the average climate conditions of Italy, renovated between 2021 and 2024 through Superbonus incentives. By analysing pre- and postretrofit energy certification data, envelope and system characteristics, and investment costs, the study derives indicators such as the cost per unit of primary energy saving and the cost per unit of CO₂ abatement, distinguishing different combinations of retrofit interventions. The results highlight the spread of cost-effectiveness among the interventions linked to the building characteristics. On this basis, the paper discusses future trajectories for EPBD-aligned incentives, providing a valuable contribution to reconcile decarbonisation objectives with economic sustainability.