A Techno-Economic View of the Future of Telecommunications

The telecommunications industry is undergoing a major transformation driven by new technologies (e.g., 5G, Open RAN, edge-cloud, broadband fixed connectivity and Artificial Intelligence) and economic challenges, reshaping the entire ecosystem. The increasing digitalization of other industries and whole sectors demands more advanced network infrastructures to meet the specific needs of different market verticals and support businesses in their digital transformation. However, the ecosystem future remains uncertain and will depend on several factors: operators' strategic choices and business model innovation, national and industrial policies and regulations, and the ability to attract investments from various industries. In the long run, significant changes are expected in the structure of the value network, the roles of industry players, and their relationships with customers and businesses. For this reason, the objective of this work is to outline the different possible evolutionary scenarios of the telecommunications ecosystem and to identify the factors and choices that could influence their realization, so as to help market players in this transformation process and decision makers to make informed choices. The focus is on the European ecosystem, even if we see possible implications at global level and believe that the approach can re replicated in other contexts. This work responds to the Grand Challenge 'Creating a vision of the future evolution of telecommunications' of the RESTART research program.