Exploring the future of telecommunications through a Techno-Economic lens

The telecommunications industry is undergoing a major transformation driven by new technologies alongside economic challenges that are reshaping the entire ecosystem. The increasing digitalization of industries and sectors demands more advanced network infrastructures tailored to diverse market verticals and supporting businesses in their digital transformation. However, the ecosystem's future remains uncertain, influenced by operators’ strategic choices, business model innovation, national and industrial policies, regulations, and cross-industry investments. This paper extends previous work by not only outlining possible evolutionary scenarios of the telecommunications ecosystem but also analyzing the reciprocal relationship between technological advances and these scenarios. Specifically, it investigates how emerging market, ecosystem, and economic conditions influence the evolution and application of technology, while technology itself drives changes in these domains. Focusing on the European ecosystem, with implications for global contexts, this integrated perspective aims to support market players and policymakers in navigating transformation and making informed decisions. This work responds to the Grand Challenge “Creating a vision of the future evolution of telecommunications” within the RESTART research program, the most important public R&D initiative ever launched in the Italian telecommunications sector, funded by the European Union / Italian Ministry of University and Research, with an investment of 116 million euros. Consistently with the elements outlined above, it focuses on the trajectory of the telecommunications ecosystem, providing a comprehensive and forward looking assessment of the key business, technology and regulatory drivers at both national and European level.