Building Demographic Scenarios in a Framework of Uncertainty

The chapter develops feasible demographic scenarios for the repopula-tion of Mykolaiv in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Three different scenarios are proposed: Scenario 1: Worst-case scenario based on the continuation of the conflict and a low population return rate. Scenario 2: a baseline scenario assuming the conflict phase ends within a medium timeframe and a moderate popu-lation return rate. Scenario 3: a Best-case scenario envisaging a rapid end to the conflict and population levels close to pre-conflict levels. Each scenario is analyzed across three temporal horizons: short term (up to 2–3 years, until 2026); medium term (up to 5 years, until 2028); and long term (up to 10 years, until 2034). Drawing on an extensive literature review, the chapter identifies two key drivers of population change: economic opportunities and the stability of the security situation. Through data collection and the application of an econometric modelling likely future demo-graphic trends in Mykolaiv are proposed and discussed. The results of a Delphi survey on the impact of the return of the post-conflict population to Mykolaiv, support the key policy implications and recommendations.