Energy Planning for West African Power Pool with Geographical Explicit Representation of Variable Renewable Potential Sites

This study investigates energy planning pathways for the West African Power Pool (WAPP) to 2040, using the Calliope energy system model to explore how renewable energy integration, storage deployment, and transmission strategies impact energy security, cost, and sustainability. Scenarios vary from national autarky to full regional interconnection, incorporating variable renewable energy sources (VRES), storage technologies, and open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs). A key innovation is the spatial clustering of solar and wind supply regions—based on IRENA’s all-Africa dataset—considering not only resource availability but also infrastructure proximity and economic viability. This approach enables realistic modeling of renewable siting constraints. Results highlight the economic and technical challenges of integrating VRES, underscoring the necessity of storage solutions such as pumped hydro and batteries. Regional interconnection scenarios outperform autarkic ones in both cost and reliability, enabling electricity trade and reducing storage needs. Countries like Mali and Niger could benefit as net exporters, although political developments challenge this potential. Policy insights suggest that a hybrid strategy—balancing national generation with interconnections—offers a more cost-effective and resilient energy future. The study calls for coordinated regional planning to enhance renewable integration and recommends further research on hydropower, market design, and investment mechanisms.