Smart shrinkage for Mykolaiv? Sustainable development in stagnating and shrinkage scenarios

In Ukraine, with the Russian invasion that started in 2022 still ongoing, the issue of considering a controlled shrinking strategy has become increasingly urgent when looking at the possible population scenario identified by the Mykolaiv Masterplan. Rather than considering the best-case scenario, we must consider the worst-case and baseline scenarios of demographic change. Planning for stagnation and decline must be prioritised to reduce disparities and enable sustainable development. This paper presents possible demographic scenarios for Mykolaiv after the war, along with their socio-economic effects. We have chosen the city of Mykolaiv because of its unique characteristics. It has emerged as a crucial defence city for Ukraine since 2014. In light of the Russian invasion of 2022, securing access to Odesa and the wider southern coastline is especially important. Furthermore, Mykolaiv has experienced ongoing demographic shrinkage; exacerbated by the war. Within this context, we map the geography of knowledge produced by smart shrinkage, and reflect on the leading causes, strategies, consequences, contradictions, and opportunities. Our research questions are whether and how these strategies can be applied to the mounting recovery challenges in Mykolaiv.