Monitoring Cislunar fragmentation events using a constellation of space-based observers

The increasing number of Cislunar missions in recent decades, driven by Moon's economic, scientific, military, and commercial potential, has increased concerns about collision threats, and the widespread proliferation of debris. To safeguard future missions and infrastructure, a robust Space Traffic Management system is essential. However, current sensor capabilities are insufficient for large-scale Cislunar Space Situational Awareness, leaving a critical observational gap in this appealing region. Currently, a constellation of space-based passive optical sensors, strategically positioned to cover key areas, remains the only viable solution. While previous studies explored the observational capabilities of various Cislunar orbits for tracking individual objects on specific trajectories, none systematically analyzed their effectiveness in monitoring debris clouds generated by collision events. This study addresses this gap by assessing the observational potential of key Cislunar and lunar orbital families in tracking debris clouds over time, offering critical insights for the sustainable planning of future Cislunar operations. Twenty-nine orbits from distinct orbital families are selected to host the observers, based on their stability and SSA relevance, and eleven catastrophic collision events, spatially distributed across the region, are simulated using the NASA Standard Breakup Model. The resulting debris are propagated within the Circular Restricted Three-Body Problem dynamical framework over a three-month period. The possible impact threats to the Earth, the Moon, and spacecraft in Geostationary Orbit (GEO) are assessed, as well as the observers’ performance in tracking the debris. Results indicate moderate risks to the two celestial bodies but no significant threats to GEO belt assets. The L2 Halo orbit family emerges as the most effective for long-term debris monitoring, achieving the highest performance when integrated into a constellation with small Lyapunov, Distant Retrograde, and Elliptical Lunar Orbits. Notably, the primary factors limiting fragment detectability include the vast spatial extent of the Cislunar region and occasional obstructions by celestial bodies.