Monte Carlo Simulation for Electric Vehicle Charging: The Case Study of Milan - Italy

The European Union has set ambitious CO2 reduction targets, aiming for a 90 % reduction in transport emissions by 2050. The Fit for 55 package reinforces these efforts, especially in road transport, with the goal of zero CO2 emissions for new vehicles by 2035. Italy aims to increase the number of Electric Vehicles (EVs) to 6.6 million by 2030, raising potential challenges to the existing charging infrastructure. In this work, a simulation tool for Electric Vehicle Charging in an urban environment was created and implemented, using Monte Carlo methodology useful for estimating results under uncertainty; in particular, the following uncertain factors are considered: i) user behavior, ii) charging infrastructure availability, iii) battery capacity, and iv) driving patterns. The simulation analyzes hourly variations in charging probability to estimate the charging demand of EVs over a 24 -hour period, projecting the occupancy of charging stations and the resulting energy demand for different areas of the city of Milan (Italy). The obtained results, which can also be replicated in other contexts, show important insights into EVs charging dynamics, serving as a basis for optimization and efficient infrastructure management.