Microclimate Monitoring Using Multivariate Analysis to Identify Surface Moisture in Historic Masonry in Northern Italy

Preserving historical porous materials requires careful monitoring of surface humidity to mitigate deterioration processes like salt crystallization, mold growth, and material decay. While microclimate monitoring is a recognized preventive conservation tool, its role in detecting surface-specific moisture risks remains underexplored. This study evaluates the relationship between indoor microclimate fluctuations and surface moisture dynamics across 13 historical sites in Northern Italy (Lake Como, Valtellina, Valposchiavo), encompassing diverse masonry typologies and environmental conditions. High-resolution sensors recorded temperature and relative humidity for a minimum of 13 months, and eight indicators-including dew point depression, critical temperature-humidity zones, and damp effect indices-were analyzed to assess the moisture risks. The results demonstrate that multivariate microclimate data could effectively predict humidity accumulation. The key findings reveal the impact of seasonal ventilation, thermal inertia, and localized air stagnation on moisture distribution, with unheated alpine sites showing the highest condensation risk. The study highlights the need for integrated monitoring approaches, combining dew point analysis, mixing ratio stability, and buffering performance, to enable early risk detection and targeted conservation strategies. These insights bridge the gap between environmental monitoring and surface moisture diagnostics in porous heritage materials.