E-Private Mobility Index: A Novel Tool for Assessing BEV Transition Feasibility

While the speed of the transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) depends on real-world driving behaviors and socioeconomic conditions, relevant predictions are often not based on real trip data. This study analyzes over 200,000 private car trips, tracked via onboard telematics across Italy, in order to assess the feasibility of replacing internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) with BEVs. Given that drivers are resistant to changing their habits, we introduce the E-Private Mobility Index, which quantifies the percentage of traditional cars at present that are functionally compatible with a medium BEV, assuming home charging. Nationwide, this index reaches 30%, but only 15% of car owners would also see financial benefits. By quantifying both the potential to replace traditional cars with electric ones and the associated economic impacts, our analysis supports sustainable mobility by offering insights into the rate of penetration of sustainable and green mobility, in line with the objectives of the European Green Deal. With its unprecedented statistical significance, the study not only provides a data-driven upper threshold of BEV penetration but also offers a flexible framework for shaping future policies, allowing the adaptation of parameters and assumptions to guide a scalable transition to electric private mobility. © 2025