Measuring value compatibility in European Union energy diplomacy: Conceptual framework and application to natural gas sector

The resurgence of great power rivalry in the early twenty-first century has reshaped international alliances. Some nations emphasize national interests and geostrategic considerations, while others uphold shared values. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the EU's official rhetoric has increasingly invoked "like-mindedness" within the liberal international order as part of a broader de-risking strategy. In EU Energy Diplomacy, the notion of "like-minded countries" is crucial for diversifying partnerships and ensuring a just energy transition. Yet its definition and inclusion criteria remain ambiguous in both official discourse and the literature. This paper addresses that gap by introducing an aggregated indicator of "like-mindedness" to reveal alignments or divergences between countries' value systems and the EU benchmark. The indicator is then applied to Europe's natural gas import strategy through a conceptual analytical framework combining the like-mindedness metric with a three-criteria techno-economic protocol. This multidisciplinary method integrates international relations perspectives with energy analyses. Using this framework, three alternative policy frames are elaborated, illustrating how like-mindedness-based analysis can inform empirical assessments and guide long-term EU energy security decisions regarding resource availability and diversification. Ultimately, the LMI indicator-along with the underlying data-gathering and calculation procedures-provides a comprehensive tool for evidence-based policymaking in foreign policy and trade. By clarifying the concept of like-mindedness, the study contributes to more transparent and strategic decision-making, helping the EU navigate complex geopolitical dynamics and balance its values with economic and security interests.