Bridging the energy gap: A Global South perspective on achieving universal access through energy sufficiency

While significant progress has been made toward achieving universal energy access, substantial disparities in global energy consumption persist. These disparities reveal a divide between over-consumption and enduring energy poverty, posing critical challenges to environmental sustainability and equitable human development. Existing research on Energy Sufficiency has largely focused on its role in reducing excessive consumption in high-income countries, with limited attention to its implications for energy access in the Global South. This paper addresses this gap by reframing Energy Sufficiency not only as a strategy to curb over-consumption but also as a framework to ensure universal access to electricity. Using a bottom-up modeling approach, the study presents a method to estimate sufficiency thresholds for rural communities in five case studies across developing countries with a focus on electricity-based energy services. Results show that per capita sufficient electricity demand ranges from 393 to 653 kWh/year in the studied areas, with variations driven by factors such as climate and technology availability. Core electricity-based energy services — illumination, thermal comfort, ICT, cold storage and water heating — are analyzed, with cold storage identified as the primary contributor. While energy sufficiency measures in the Global North are projected to significantly reduce final energy demand, this study highlights a contrasting trend in rural regions of developing countries, where achieving sufficiency will require an increase in energy access and consumption to meet basic needs. The findings offer valuable insights for developing sufficiency-driven strategies combined with efficiency measures to combat energy poverty and promote sustainable, high-quality energy access in rural communities. Although this study does not explicitly model cultural factors such as traditional practices and social norms, their influence on energy demand remains significant and should be explored in future research.