Analysis of Asteroid Deflection Mission Options for the 2025 Planetary Defense Conference Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Threat Scenario by the Italian Space Agency Delegation at SMPAG

The growing interest in addressing asteroid threat scenarios is justified by current estimates of the Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHOs) population and by recent impacts on Earth. This paper presents and analyses preliminary mission design options for the mitigation of asteroid 2024 PDC25, focus of the hypothetical impact threat scenario introduced for the Planetary Defense Conference 2025. Specifically, both a reconnaissance mission and deflection campaigns with different deviation strategies are proposed. The developed impulsive fast flyby reconnaissance mission allows for the enhancement of the estimation of asteroid 2024 PDC25’s physical properties. The Multiple Kinetic Impactor (MKI) and Nuclear Explosive Devices (NEDs) in a “Carrier” configuration are selected and analysed as impulsive deflection alternatives. Models for the Standard and Enhanced Gravity Tractor (GT), Single and Multiple Laser Ablation (LA), Single Ion Beam Deflection (IBD) and a newly developed technique of Multiple IBD in Formation Flying are developed as continuous slow push/pull deviation strategies. The selection of these strategies was mainly based on a sufficiently high Technology Readiness Level (TRL), enabling near-term applications if their development is prioritised. Being the Kinetic Impactor strategy the only flight-proven technology, uncertainties in various parameters are also incorporated into the model developed for the MKI. Deflection campaigns with the analysed techniques and different timelines are proposed to divert asteroid 2024 PDC25 from a collision course with Earth. A final comparison is conducted among the proposed mitigation options, based on their deflection performance, technological readiness and feasibility within the available warning time. Based on this assessment, the most effective strategies to deflect asteroid 2024 PDC25 are identified as MKI, stand-off NEDs in “Carrier” configuration and MIBD.