Application of a Controlled Evolutionary Model of the Orbital Population to Target Sustainable Space Utilisation

The space sector is rapidly growing due to advances in technology and more affordable space access, which has increased the risk of in-orbit collisions. This highlights the need for effective space debris management. Recently, sustainability in space has gained attention, with efforts focused on creating a sustainable orbital environment through efficient space activity management. This work presents a framework that combines environmental models and a control system to allocate mitigation resources for sustainability. Using a statistical one-dimensional model, the system simulates space environment evolution, considering factors like atmospheric drag, collisions, launches, and active debris removal. A state-dependent differential Riccati approach is applied for feedback control, handling non-linear dynamics. The novelty lies in automatically identifying actions needed to meet space debris targets. Results from this ERC-funded GREEN SPECIES project provide insights into optimal strategies for minimising risks and the effort required for mitigation.