The role of sufficiency measures in a decarbonizing Europe

Europe's ambitious climate goals highlight the importance of combining energy policies with technological decarbonization; however, these efforts alone may not achieve the necessary emissions reductions. Existing models for low-carbon transitions often focus on technological interventions, without fully integrating the decarbonization potential of behavioural shifts towards sufficient consumption. A comprehensive model that incorporates both sufficiency and technological measures, with realistic adoption rates for sufficiency actions, is essential to effectively evaluate climate targets' feasibility. This study introduces a multi-regional, multi-sectoral model, based on an input-output framework, to quantify the decarbonization impacts of sufficiency measures on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and employment under European Union (EU) specific scenarios through 2050. The model evaluates six sufficiency measures: reductions in air travel, personal living space, and vehicle size; increased product and space sharing; greater cycling adoption; and a shift towards plant-based diets. Combined, these measures may reduce EU annual GHG emissions by up to 13 %, yielding global cumulative savings of 13.8 Gt CO₂eq by 2050, while having moderate first-order effects on GDP and employment. However, most of the emissions reductions stem from dietary changes and reduced air travel, while other measures – such as car downsizing and cycling – show limited effects due to their dependence on concurrent projected electrification and decarbonization of the energy system. The findings indicate that dietary changes and reductions in air travel provide the most substantial and resilient emissions reductions, making them critical priorities for policy support.