How much hydrogen do we need and where? A spatially detailed estimation of the potential hydrogen demand in the future aviation and industry sector for Italy

The decarbonization of the energy system involves the need for several new technological solutions.Hydrogen emerges as a potential key player, particularly in sectors where electrification is impractical (due to economic reasons or plant design complexity), such as aviation and certain industries.However, a comprehensive understanding of where demand and supply for this energy carrier might intersect is lacking.This lack is determined by the early stage of development of the hydrogen market but it also contributes to shaping its evolution, in a reciprocal cause-and-effect manner.This article introduces a methodology for estimating the potential hydrogen demand and its geographical distribution within specific classes of the transport and industrial sectors.Using the Italian case study, open-access data with varying spatial resolutions are collected: (i) electrical loads, (ii) the fossil fuel consumption and (iii) the estimated thermal and electrical annual energy needs for the industry; (iv) the number of flights departing from each airport for aviation throughout the year and lastly (v) the distribution of workers and active enterprises per category.The developed tailored methodologies aim to estimate the energy needs of both sectors in a fully decarbonized scenario.Industrial demands are differentiated by class and temperature level, allocated across regions through the distribution of workers per census section (subareas of a municipality).A focus on refining subsector is provided, with a first-attempt estimation on green molecules needed to substitute fossil feedstocks.As regards the aviation sector instead, it is characterized by a dedicated regression model associating fuel consumption with the distance travelled by each flight departing from the observed airport.Subsequently, we define a plausible energy mix, estimating the energy vectors needs.Hydrogen and its derivatives demands (i.e., liquid kerosene) are assessed at the same spatial resolution as industry (census section).The main outcomes of the analysis allow to identify potential clusters of demand across the Italian energy system, guiding the selection of areas suitable for the development of hydrogen hubs or distributed local hydrogen grids (e.g., production, transport, storage close to the end-use).In a decarbonized scenario, the results show a potential annual hydrogen demand around 600 TWh within the two sectors (i.e., ~18 MtH2/y), of which almost 73% is destined for decarbonizing refining products (~433 TWh), while the remaining share destined for industrial thermal needs (154 TWh) and 9 TWh for aviation purposes in pure form.This first assessment might serve as a base for further studies, enabling policymakers to identify and tailor measures for specific subsectors and geographical areas and aiding hydrogen-related projects in identifying viable development locations, fostering synergies with local players, and capitalizing on economies of scale. © 2024 37th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems.