OPERATION OF IMPLANTABLE MEDICAL DEVICE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE ATRIAL FIBRILLATION RECURRENCE LIKELIHOOD

In some examples a medical system comprising an implantable medical device and processing circuitry. The implantable medical device is configured to: sense a cardiac signal of a patient; detect a plurality of episodes of atrial fibrillation (AF) over a time period based on the cardiac signal; and stare AF episode data for the plurality of episodes of AF detected over the time period. The processing circuitry configured to: determine, based on the AF episode data, a first parameter representing a prevalence over the time of AF episodes and a second parameter representing a degree of temporal clustering of the AF episodes; determine a likelihood of recurrence of AF after an AF treatment procedure based on the first parameter and the second parameter; and transmit the likelihood to a computing device for presentation to a clinician.