Prediction of Energy Delivered by Rapid and Ultra-Rapid Electric Vehicle Chargers: Comparison Between Italy and Germany

The electric mobility sector has developed significantly in recent years, with a growing commitment to the goal of zero emissions. This article considers the chargers owned by ABB E-Mobility in Germany and Italy, and analyses their spatial distribution and the trend of their demand in the period 2020-2022. After providing a characterization of the e-mobility network in the two countries, we exploit AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to forecast future energy consumption. In Italy, fast and ultra-rapid recharging stations are distributed in 138 cities, mainly located in industrial areas, with very few of them placed in commercial and residential ones, and Milan hosts the overwhelming majority of them (10% of the total). Instead, the number of rapid and ultra-rapid chargers in Germany is significantly higher, about 13 times higher than in Italy, with a distribution across 1397 different cities, of which Hamburg has the largest number of stations (6% of the total). The results show that the volume of energy delivery in Germany is higher than in Italy, but Italian consumption is expected to grow faster in the future. These findings reflect the fact that Italy experienced a more recent adoption of electric vehicles and, consequently, owns a less mature charging network compared to Germany. On the other hand, thanks to a greater diffusion of electric vehicles and a more developed charging network, the demand for electric energy in Germany is characterized by greater stability. The differences between the e-mobility network of Italy and Germany highlight the importance of adapting charging network deployment strategies to the specific needs and preferences of each country.